Trump's (un)popularity, tariff fallout, homelessness and Marvel
In the first (!) edition of Unravel, we look at market volatility, tariff fallout, foreign visitor numbers to the US, the homelessness challenge and the Marvel juggernaut.
History-making volatility for the stock market after Trump’s tariff u-turn - The S&P 500 surged by 9.52% following Trump's decision to temporarily halt certain reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Dow Jones posted it’s sixth biggest gain ever (+7.87%) and Nasdaq its second-best day ever (+12.16%). These gains were shortlived - yesterday the S&P 500 again fell (-3.5%) and the dollar had its worst day since 2022 as the White House said tariffs on Beijing now total 145%. The bottom line is that investors are nowhere near being out of the woods.
Source: CNBC Trump’s popularity has declined (modestly) - His approval ratings were at a career high after inauguration in January. Tariffs may now, for the most part, have been suspended, but most pollsters agree they have damaged him somewhat. We should keep this in perspective - in spite of the general chaos of the tariff circus, these shifts are not huge. His -8 net approval (YouGov) actually matches his rating from the same stage of his first term. We’ll keep an eye on this.
Dramatic fall in numbers of foreigners visiting the United States - presumably fearing ICE detention and/or general Trumpian instability, fewer foreigners are visiting the United States. Main airports have observed a plunge of 10-15% in foreign arrivals.
1/40 San Franciscans circulate in and out of homelessness each year - as many as 20,000 people spend some time ‘unhoused’. San Francisco shelters about 48% of its unhoused population—lower than the statewide average of 68% but higher than the national average of 39%. The chart below is an excellent visualisation of the homelessness challenge.
Total box office revenue of Marvel films is staggering - At $31.5 billion, Marvel films have earned more than the next three most popular franchises combined (Star Wars, Harry Potter and James Bond), averaging $900 million across 35 films. Total takings are roughly equivalent to Saint Lucia’s GDP since 2007. Amidst some signs of dwindling audience interest, there are currently 10 new Marvel movies in development - Disney will milk every last drop.
